Ukraine and Russia account for a third of global wheat and barley exports. They are also top exporters of other grains and sunflower seed oil used for cooking and food processing. Countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa rely on these countries to feed millions of people who subsist on subsidized bread and bargain noodles.
As the Russian-Ukraine war has choked off or thrown into question grain supplies from a region known as “the breadbasket of the world,” farmers are weighing whether to change their planting patterns and grow more wheat this spring. Since the invasion, prices have increased by a third. This has helped offset losses from drought and the increasing cost of fuel.
Major grain producers like the United States, Canada, France, Australia, and Argentina are being closely watched to see if they will be able to fill in where there are losses from Russian and Ukranian supplies. Countries like Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, Iran, Ethiopia, and other countries that cannot grow enough wheat, barley, corn, or other grains to meet their countries demands are looking with uncertainty to these major countries. The war has raised the specter of food shortages and political instability in countries that rely on affordable grain imports.
Also, these major producers are facing legal limits on exports and farming patterns. On top of that, farmers are facing the prospect of another year of drought, climbing fuel and fertilizer costs, and supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic.
About half of the grain the World Food Program buys to feed 125 million people worldwide comes from Ukraine. Russia is also the biggest exporter of fertilizer, while Ukraine ships huge amounts of corn, rye, oats and millet. The Black Sea region is a top producer of the grains used to feed livestock worldwide.
There are unanswered questions about how Western sanctions on Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, could affect its grain exports and distribution networks.
Source:BCNN1
BCNN1 WP 