WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are deadlocked in the battleground of Florida eight weeks before Election Day, with ballots being mailed to state voters later this month, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.
Trump and Biden both get the support of 48 percent of likely voters, with the president ahead among Latinos in the state, and Biden doing better with seniors than Hillary Clinton did four years ago.
Among a wider universe of all registered voters, it’s Trump 48 percent, Biden 47 percent.
Also, the poll shows Trump leading on which candidate would better handle the economy, while Biden has the advantage on the coronavirus and race relations.
“It’s not unusual for Florida to be this close,” says Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.
Trump won it by just more than 1 percentage point four years ago.
And Miringoff explains the electoral implications of the state’s 29 electoral votes: “If Trump loses Florida, it’s game over. If Trump wins, the story of the night will still have to be told,” given the remaining battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden’s biggest advantages in the tied Florida race are among Black likely voters (he leads them 83 percent to 11 percent), women (57 percent to 40 percent) and independents (51 percent to 40 percent).
Trump, meanwhile, leads among men (58 percent to 38 percent), white voters (56 percent to 41 percent) and whites without college degrees (63 percent to 35 percent).
Yet in a significant break from four years ago, Trump holds the narrow edge over Biden among likely Latino voters, 50 percent to 46 percent — with Trump leading sizably among Latinos of Cuban descent, and with Biden just slightly ahead among all other Latinos in the state. (The Cuban-versus-non-Cuban Latino split in the poll is too small to report the actual numbers.)
In the 2016 race, Hillary Clinton bested Trump among Florida Latinos, 62 percent to 35 percent, according to the exit poll.
But in another break from 2016, Biden is barely ahead among seniors in the state, 49 percent to 48 percent.
Four years ago, Trump won Florida seniors, 57 percent to 40 percent, according to the exit poll.
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