Forty five percent of counties across the United States are currently battling uncontrollable COVID-19 outbreaks, a data map shows – as the latest models predict the number of deaths will surge by at least 20,000 in the next four weeks.
The data map, compiled by spatial analytics company Esri, shows that an ‘epidemic trend’, or uncontrollable spread, of coronavirus cases is occurring across the Sun Belt states and parts of the Midwest.
Of the 3,141 counties across the US, 1,415 are currently experiencing an epidemic outbreak and 1,103 are seeing spreading trends, which is an outbreak that could still be controlled if preventative measures are taken, the data shows.
Only a handful of states – including Arizona, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida and South Carolina – are only experiencing epidemic or spreading trends.
Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgie, North Carolina and Tennessee are the states where only one or two counties are not currently seeing an uncontrollable spread.
Texas and California – two hot spot states – have a handful of counties that have controlled the spread, according to the data map.
Currently, the number of infections across the US has surpassed 3.4 million and more than 137,000 Americans have died from the virus.
The latest modeling projects the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US to increase further – even as one research team suggests the near-universal use of masks could save 40,000 lives between now and November.
The country should hit 151,000 by August 1 and 157,000 by August 8, according to an average of models of 23 US and international research groups.
The figures, which were published by the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s Reich lab, are among the forecasts relied on by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
A week ago, this average predicted 147,000 deaths on August 1.
California, Florida and Texas, which are the three most populous states in the country, will see 1,000 more deaths over the next four weeks compared to the previous four, according to the model.
Meanwhile, a newly revised model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects the death toll will climb to just above 224,000 by November 1 – up 16,000 from a prior forecast – due to rising infections and hospitalizations in many states.
The latest forecast predicts the death toll could be reduced by 40,000 if nearly all Americans wore masks in public.
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Source: Daily Mail