Twenty three percent of counties across the United States are now seeing an uncontrollable growth in new COVID-19 infections, according to a data map – as model projections show Phoenix could see 28,000 new cases a day by July 18.
A color-coded data map, compiled by spatial analytics company Esri, shows how the US is faring in terms of infections by tracking the number of new COVID-19 cases on a county level.
Updated data from Thursday shows that large parts of the South and Southwest are showing an ‘epidemic trend’ or ‘spreading trend’ for new coronavirus infections.
The ‘epidemic’ trend is described as an uncontrolled spread, while ‘spreading’ indicates an outbreak that could still be controlled if preventative measures are taken.
Of the 3,141 counties across the country, 745 are currently experiencing an epidemic outbreak and 1,232 are seeing spreading trends, according to the data map. Nearly 670 counties are currently seeing a controlled trend in new coronavirus cases.
According to the map, the entire state of Arizona is seeing either epidemic or spreading trends.
The majority of counties in states like Florida, California, Georgia, the Carolinas, Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi are seeing similar trends.
About half the counties in Texas are currently seeing epidemic and spreading trends in new infections.
Infections across the US have been surging for more than a week after trending down for over six weeks. Currently, the US has recorded more than 2.3 million coronavirus cases and more than 121,000 Americans have died from the virus.
New cases and hospitalizations have been spiking to record levels in states like Arizona, Texas, California and Florida. Los Angeles County now has the most cases of all US counties with more than 85,000 confirmed infections.
As cases continue to rise, forecast models from the PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia predict infections in Phoenix will rise to a staggering 28,000 new cases a day by July 18.
That forecast is far worst than the daily cases epicenter New York City saw in mid-April.
In Houston, daily infections are forecast to increase to more than 4,500 in the same time frame. Miami could see cases surge to more than 2,800 in the next three weeks.
Researchers from the PolicyLab have warned that there is a risk Montgomery, Alabama; Little Rock, Arkansas; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Las Vegas, Nevada; and South Carolina could risk a similar resurgence.
Data shows that the current levels in those cities is similar to where parts of Arizona, Texas and Florida were just a few weeks ago.
The forecasts, however, show that many counties across the country are starting to see stabilizing cases. States like Oregon, Louisiana, North Carolina and California are showing improving four-week forecasts, according to researchers.
It is not yet clear how much of this stabilization in risk for resurgence is related to masking policies or increased personal vigilance in distancing and hygiene practices as people have observed what is happening in other parts of the country, the researchers say.
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Source: Daily Mail