Most of the southeast Louisiana coast was under a hurricane warning Thursday night ahead of Tropical Storm Barry, which is predicted to intensify from Friday up through its expected landfall on Saturday. Whether or not Barry becomes a hurricane, it is on track to dump enormous amounts of rain in southeast Louisiana—a vulnerable region pummeled by multiple flood disasters over the last few years. Widespread and severe flooding is a strong possibility.
As of 5 pm EDT, Barry was still a minimal-strength tropical storm, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. Northerly wind shear was pushing dry air into the storm, keeping the northern half of Barry mostly free of convection. There were signs that Barry was starting to form a more “stacked” circulation, as a low-level vortex moved closer to the mid-level circulation. Data from a hurricane-hunter flight in progress Thursday evening suggested that modest strengthening was under way. More sustained strengthening of Barry will not happen until convection wraps around the entire core, and this may not occur in time to give Barry a runway to become a hurricane.
Most of the model guidance now brings Barry onshore in southeast Louisiana, between Friday night and midday Saturday, although the 12Z run of the UKMET model still insisted on a landfall in far southeast Texas late Saturday. The 12Z runs of the GFS, HMON, and HWRF tracked Barry onshore and northward near or just west of New Orleans. The official NHC forecast calls for a landfall in central Louisiana, closest to the 12Z European model solution, with a northward track arcing close to the Mississippi Delta near Memphis by Monday.
Water still the big threat from Barry
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) upped its rainfall forecast for Barry on Thursday afternoon, calling for a pocket of 20-25” amounts near Barry’s track between Thursday and Sunday evening. It’s very unusual for a NOAA/WPC forecast to depict amounts above 20”, which testifies to the center’s high confidence in this extreme rainfall event.
Widespread and locally severe flash flooding can be expected as Barry’s rains push onshore, especially from Saturday into Sunday. WPC placed most of southeast Louisiana under a high-risk designation for excessive rains from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. A high-risk rainfall outlook on Day 3 has only been issued in two other cases: with Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018), both of which produced multi-billion-dollar flooding. WPC’s comments on Thursday afternoon are well worth noting:
“This scenario is not quite as certain as other storms of recent memory like Florence last year. Barry has not yet become very well organized. But we have seen in numerous examples, including the unnamed system that struck Louisiana in August 2016, that when the global models unanimously begin depicting these high-end rainfall amounts they are usually correct in forecasting a strongly anomalous event with potential to produce substantial impacts. For now we have trended the WPC QPF up to indicate areal average 10 to 20 inch amounts, with isolated 25 inch amounts, and with much of the bulk of this occurring on Day 3.”
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Source: Weather Underground