Do the 2018 Election Polls Signal a ‘Blue Wave’?

Come November, American voters will be going to the polls to determine local, state, and congressional leadership.

For some, it is an opportunity to further solidify President Donald Trump’s federal efforts to “Make America Great Again” with a stronger Republican majority.

Others hope to see a “Blue Wave” that will propel the Democratic Party into strong majorities across both the Senate and the House.

What will happen when Americans go to the voting booths on Tuesday, Nov. 6? Here is what some current polling data has to say on the issue.

National Trends

RealClearPolitics averaged a series of polls taken over the past couple of weeks from such prominent entities as Rasmussen Reports, Gallup, Quinnipiac, and NPR/Marist, among others.

In a report accessed Monday, RealClearPolitics’ average put President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 40.9 percent, with a disapproval rating of 53.6 percent.

President Trump’ disapproval rating is nearly five percentage points lower than it was last December, but 2.5 points higher than in June, when 51.1 percent disapproved.

For their generic congressional vote, based on data updated last Thursday, RCP had the Democrats ahead with 48.8 percent, while the Republicans had 40.5 percent.

Democrats have led on the generic congressional vote polling since Apr. 24 of last year, when they had 44.3 percent to the Republicans’ 38.5 percent.


Despite the talk of many pundits about a “Blue Wave” hitting Congress, FiveThirtyEight has predicted that the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.

In a report accessed Monday, FiveThirtyEight gave the GOP a 66.1 percent chance of keeping control of the upper house; Democrats only received a 33.9 percent chance of taking control.

One factor the forecasting website noted was that 42 Republican seats were not up for election in 2018 versus only 23 Democratic seats not up for election in 2018.

Of the 35 contested seats, FiveThirtyEight identified 18 of them as “Solid D,” 5 as “Likely D,” and 2 as “Lean D.” By contrast only 4 of the contested seats were labeled “Solid R,” 1 labeled “Likely R,” and 2 labeled “Lean R.” 3 seats were labeled toss-ups.

In their “Senate No Toss Ups 2018” map, accessed Monday, RealClearPolitics predicted that the Republicans would have 52 seats and the Democrats would have 48, again forecasting a GOP Senate majority.

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Source: Christian Post