New York Times Predicts 69% Chance Republicans Take Over, Washington Post Predicts 95% Chance

midterm-predictions--2014
For months, we’ve been tracking the probability of each party controlling the Senate after the 2014 elections. Here’s how the chances have changed over time.

State-by-State Probabilities

To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.
Source: New York Times
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About this project

Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race. Read more about our methodology.

Click here to read more

Source: Washington Post

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